Steel consumption per capita – another powerful tool in determining the trajectory of the demand for a Commodity is simply “how much will a country, region, continent; consume as they go up the income scale”!

Tshepo Magagane – Resources Director

Why I wrote over a decade back about Copper – before Electrification, Data, Defense; just as countries go up the income scale, how much Copper will they use.

The case for Copper already stacked up.

And when you bring in lower grades, higher opex, no new MRE projects, problems with existing supplies, you fully appreciate the opportunity Copper presents for Capital and for Transforming countries. I dont touch on Capex as you see because I am seeing that these 0.3% projects are not going to have IRRs higher than hurdle rates – they need a substantially higher copper price – that simple (we have seen a few already)!

A decade back, going around with the ZCCM CEO going “ZCCM has great data in its library, let us sign an NDA so that you could access it” – few would even bother to take a second meeting (others would even yawn at the first meeting – allocators, your capital is not safe with people who dont have boots on the ground franchises – find boots on the ground franchises embedded into the ecosystem – there are not shortcuts, the opportunities are there).

Can India drive steel consumption like China did?

Had this very same conversation re: what happens post China Peak Steel – with some of the brightest minds – senior M&M banker who shaped how the sector looked / then SAC PM – worked with Cohen directly at the time / one of the most successful distressed manager…

…all of Indian heritage…

…we all came to the NO conclusion!

India is different from China – let us start with “democracy”…

…but the structure ie oligarchs (distressed manager detested them re: how they siphoned of cash from India via inflated projects) / professional class (diaspora) / middle-class / OTHERS…

…China had to engage in so much construction and building to drive steel consumption…

…you wont get that in India…

…people underestimate how much it takes to come up with an investment thesis – having ongoing conversations with people you respect because they have done so much🤞🏽