China – “does not view it as IP theft, this is payback for opium wars”!

By Tshepo Magagane – Resources Partner

That was from ex-Aussie PM, Rudd, said the above.

China has a multi-decade and myopic focus.

Everyone is going Rare Earths but China started getting the competitive advantage in the 90s – not 10yrs ago, it is an entire ecosystem…

…and why did they steal a march on the rest of the world – because Rare Earths are incredibly dirty – I am not talking, “oooh, this doesnt smell nice” – talking cancerous dirty!

Or just general smelting / refining – how much is it going to cost to do it in the West?

I have talked about China buying a discarded plant in Germany – coming in way over the top on pricing and instead of the normal confirmatory DD, hundreds of people coming in to take down that plant bolt for bolt for almost a year.

Or take Steel – Mittal saw the current market conditions and knew that the only way to address this was to consolidate the Chinese market – China stopped that in the tracks – we thought that we were smart ie take a minority stake in a small Chinese producer and use that to consolidate – nope, they saw through it and stopped it.

Now regions from Dunkirk, Port Talbot, Teesside, Vaal, Vereeniging et al are being decimated!

Or simply take DRC Cobalt or DRC Copper Oxides or Indonesia Nickel; that is just how China operates – they can run a mine at a loss and PICK UP THE MARGIN down the line…

Or take Iron Ore – a battle that goes back over 2 decades – tried to break the pricing system to their favour – failed; then tried to take over Rio, then failed…

…but here we are in 2026, they are increasingly getting the upper hand.

In 2012, any type of delusions were wiped away – Binding Offer stage; they go on Confirmatory DD – NO ADVERSE FINDING – come back and want to lower the price and terms🤞🏽

After that I went “f, they can do the financial engineering we can do in the West but are not bound by the guide/guardrails” – what you truly have to appreciate when dealing with China.