By Tshepo Magagane As people pile into mining without any knowledge or experience – understand these simple things – this should simply have never been issued. I want to see the NPV at 1.3k downside. I want to see base case at 1.8k. Spot is upside. Think about it simplistically: * Debt provider – for […]
Africa – transition – the continent is alone in this!
Written By Tshepo Magagane If we are waiting for any Western entity to come and unlock this for us…..we are still hallucinating! We need to be truly smart about unlocking this FOR OUR OWN BENEFIT! We are currently observes in this whole thing and it is getting worse. Let us use whatever capital is available […]
Buying Gold Assets – what do you pay at this stage?
By Tshepo Magagane I mean, the likes of Thor, I would happily pay a premium and buy it at 2-3x PER! But others, what do you input as LT gold price? It has value destruction written all over it there! In a gold story, you are coming in at 1. NAV 2. Prices have moved […]
Copper challenges – They Are Vast!
By Tshepo Magagane I have been following Chemaf for the past 15yrs! Close to USD700m has been sunk into this! It is at best a Tier 4 project. BUT see the fight the Chinese are putting to get hold of it, you have seen Special Forces from the US also entering this fight. Or the […]
Zambia’s Agriculture Sector From Recovery to Resilience
Chabala Sunkutu 2025 has been a remarkable year for Zambia’s economy. After the challenges of recent years, we’ve seen a strong rebound that is restoring confidence across industries. Real GDP grew by 4.5% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, and both the IMF and the government project full-year growth between 5.8% and 6.0%, which, if […]
FQM Abandoning Sale Process Of Zambia Assets!
By Tshepo Magagane My read – yes, balance sheet is stronger BUT I dont think you can price a Tier 1 asset right now. Will be like trying to sell a stake in an Iron Ore asset in 2003. Price was 30/t – in 05 went up to 65/t – think about that – it […]
Arsenal – Can They Ever Win The League?
By Tshepo Magagane Investing / Commodities lesson! Was having this conversation with a distressed debt investor I worked with around 09 about this. He was linking it to investing – especially a question that he liked in interviews “X is trading at 2 but you analysis says 5” …you buy in and sell at 4 […]
Pre-MRE Projects
By Tshepo Magagane At this early stage is where the greatest value creation lies! You will hear all this, “we only do feasibility stage projects” – know that the capital does not understand the sector. No one ever made real money in mining by coming in at BFS! You need to do the risk unlock […]
Copper – Valuation Pulse Check!
Tshepo Magagane Hudbay sells 30% of the project for an implied valuation of USD2bn – Tier 2 project and focuses on the Cu grades in the attached. Why whoever solves this conundrum of these 0.6-1% projects in Zambia will unlock generational wealth creation multiples of what we saw with Iron Ore in Australia. This is […]
Commodities and Industrialisation
I will give you this eg of Kumba Iron ore and ArcelorMittal South Africa (Arcelor has these agreements globally). With the Kumba one, the iron ore assets were effectively written-off to zero and spun out… …what the steel operations held on to was the supply of this production to support steel (& expansion) at a […]