By Tshepo Magagane Investing / Commodities lesson! Was having this conversation with a distressed debt investor I worked with around 09 about this. He was linking it to investing – especially a question that he liked in interviews “X is trading at 2 but you analysis says 5” …you buy in and sell at 4 […]
Pre-MRE Projects
By Tshepo Magagane At this early stage is where the greatest value creation lies! You will hear all this, “we only do feasibility stage projects” – know that the capital does not understand the sector. No one ever made real money in mining by coming in at BFS! You need to do the risk unlock […]
Copper – Valuation Pulse Check!
Tshepo Magagane Hudbay sells 30% of the project for an implied valuation of USD2bn – Tier 2 project and focuses on the Cu grades in the attached. Why whoever solves this conundrum of these 0.6-1% projects in Zambia will unlock generational wealth creation multiples of what we saw with Iron Ore in Australia. This is […]
Commodities and Industrialisation
I will give you this eg of Kumba Iron ore and ArcelorMittal South Africa (Arcelor has these agreements globally). With the Kumba one, the iron ore assets were effectively written-off to zero and spun out… …what the steel operations held on to was the supply of this production to support steel (& expansion) at a […]
The African Copperbelts
By Tshepo Magagane Sometimes it is so difficult to really convey the opportunity at hand! The average project can generate an EBITDA margin of cUSD5,000/t (DRC will be higher given the higher grades). Now this about when Copper prices start to move – it is just dropping to the bottom line! I have the attached […]
Bottom Line Up Front
By Ceaser Siwale The recent U.S. military action against Iran marks a severe geopolitical escalation with immediate, far-reaching consequences for global markets and business operations. The primary threat is a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. This is not a moderate risk; it is a […]
Copper Is Not Critical – It Is Strategic
By Tshepo Magagane Copper ore shortage – the market does not understand or even begin to appreciate how much lack of ore is already there before we even talk about the Transition. 2 yrs back sitting with a smelter operator (who has now actually put it on C&M), he went “I am getting investor offers […]
Copper Needs a Minimum of USD250bn Over The Next 10yrs To Meet The Transition Demand.
By Tshepo Mangagane Zambia alone needs USD12-15bn to unlock the independent projects that will contribute to the 3Mtpa Current AuM in Specialist Funds sits at USD17bn – less than 3% of that focuses on Africa. ZERO percent of Specialist Funds does pre-PFS projects across all commodities. There are not new pre-MRE projects defined globally. How […]
Why Listed Equity Is Not Suitable For Developing Mining Projects!
By Tshepo Magagane Ivanhoe share price – why listed equity is not suitable for developing mining projects! If Ivanhoe was another company without such a strong shareholder base; it would be in serious trouble. Now given that you have long-term holders who understand mining, they are able to step back, understand the issue and then […]
AfDB – Plea To The New Leadership!
By Tshepo Magagane Really forget about these grand pronouncements that will not see the light of day! We are running out of time as Africa. We know what needs to be done – the solution is there, ESFD is there – AfDB is the only pillar-assessed…was pillar assessed 18mths back… …almost 3yrs and there has […]