Zambia and Africa’s Critical Minerals: What Can We Learn From Malaysia’s Tariff Trap?

By Savior Mwambwa

I suspect that like me, most African policy makers, thinkers and finance experts must be  watching the US-China trade tensions unfold with a mix of concern and urgency. It’s reshaping global supply chains in ways that could hit African nations hard if we don’t get ahead of it. A fresh piece What’s It Like to Deal With A Brutal U.S. Tariffs? Ask Malaysia in the New York Times about Malaysia’s solar industry crumbling under US tariffs really drives this home for me. In this NYT piece written by Alexandra Stevenson and Zunaira Saieed we see that factories that once buzzed with activity, fueled by Chinese investments, are now ghosts towns, victims of crackdowns on transshipment and over-dependence on Beijing. Sound familiar? For Zambia, with our wealth in copper and cobalt but struggles with energy shortages and debt, this feels like a wake-up call we can’t ignore.

In this post and at the risk of sounding like a broken record  I want to re-emphasis and  share  not for the  first time  why Zambia and Africa as a whole  needs to pivot toward self-reliance. By leaning into continental trade pacts, we can climb the value chains for critical minerals and strengthen our position in this geopolitical tug-of-war over green resources. This time with hindsight from Malaysia’s most recent practical experience and lessons.

Malaysia’s Hard Lesson: A Cautionary Tale

Let’s start with what happened in Malaysia, it’s a stark reminder of the pitfalls ahead. Over the past decade, Chinese companies pumped in about $15 billion to build solar plants, creating jobs and sparking an export boom. But then came the hammer: Biden’s 250% tariffs on suspected dumping, followed by Trump’s 40% global levy on rerouted goods. The industry got gutted. Only a couple of manufacturers are left standing, and big players like Longi have slashed production big time.

Malaysia’s fighting back by repurposing stockpiles for their own renewable energy push, they’re aiming for half their power from clean sources by 2030. It’s a smart inward  move, but it highlights the dangers of an export model that’s too tied to Chinese supply lines. One wrong move in global politics, and you’re left high and dry.

Zambia’s Vulnerabilities: Echoes of Malaysia

In Zambia, we’re in a similar boat. Copper makes up 70% of our exports and 13% of GDP, but most of it’s raw material shipped out through Chinese firms. Add in the drought that’s wrecked our hydropower, forcing us to import energy during a full-blown crisis, and things look precarious. If US tariffs start tagging Zambian minerals as Chinese proxies, our flows could dry up, worsening our fiscal headaches.

So for everyone back home and across Africa, the message is clear: diversify or get left behind. We can’t afford to be collateral in someone else’s trade war.

 Practical Steps Forward

So, what can we do?

1. Broaden Our Investment Horizons 

Our ties with China run deep, but President Hichilema’s shift toward Western partners has opened some doors. The 2022 EU-Zambia forum brought in $2 billion in deals let’s build on that by wooing India, Japan, and South Korea for instance. We can incentivize local assembly of solar panels and batteries in our Multi-Facility Economic Zones with tax breaks from the 2022 Renewable Energy Strategy. Plus, tap into duty-free markets through AGOA and the EU’s Everything but Arms scheme(while we still have these)  to buffer against US protectionism, ad  target our own continental market.

2. Build Domestic Demand

 With only 43% grid access, we’ve got huge untapped potential. Let’s fast-track our 500MW renewable goal by 2030, subsidize solar farms with surplus inventory, expand net metering via the 2019 Electricity Act, and waive VAT on local gear. A $50 million climate-financed pilot could light up 10,000 rural homes by 2026 (hello REA!). It’s like Malaysia’s pivot, but it also boosts our energy security.

3. Prioritize Technology Transfer

Chinese dominance can stifle local growth, as Malaysians found out the hard way. We need to mandate joint ventures with at least 30% Zambian staffing and skills-sharing, building on our 2017 local content push. E.g  Invest in training hubs in the Copperbelt and a $10 million innovation fund through the Ministry of Green Economy. This way, we move from raw exports to refined products, capturing more value.

4. Align Policies for Strength

Draw up a UNCTAD-inspired tariff strategy that plays by WTO and regional rules. Redirect subsidies to climate tech and tap the Green Climate Fund for our $17 billion Paris commitments. Get the pending local content law enacted by 2026, enforcing 40% domestic inputs in green projects.

5. Leveraging Africa’s Continental Power

Zambia is not in this alone and  should not be,  our position in the continent is a game-changer. As a SADC founder in a $721 billion bloc, we can process minerals tariff-free for neighbors like South Africa. COMESA’s 2025 plan targets 20% intra-trade growth by 2028, with Zambian copper at the heart of it. And AfCFTA, now fully operational after 2025 concessions, unlocks a $3.4 trillion market, potentially boosting exports by 25-30% through the Guided Trade Initiative and Africa Green Minerals Strategy.

The value chain opportunities are exciting. Our Copperbelt, shared with the DRC, is loaded with reserves. The 2022 US MoU and 2025 AfDB venture are eyeing regional battery hubs that could add billions in value via cross-border zones. Let’s shift from 95% raw exports where Africa only grabs 40% of the worth to smelting and components. AfCFTA can scale things up, cutting costs by 15-20%, while SADC pushes for 40% local content.

In the big-power showdown, where China’s invested $57 billion in African minerals, unity gives us leverage. The Africa Green Minerals Strategy lets us collectively demand tech transfers, loosening Beijing’s hold ( a point so eloquently and expertly articulated by Fadhel Kaboub فاضل قابوب in his “Geopolitical Bargain of the Century” thesis). Diversify with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act and US pacts for $2 billion inflows. Opt for the Lobito Corridor over Belt and Road to negotiate better deals, which could lift GDP by 5-7%.

Regional Development banks, RECs, and governments across the continent need to drive harmonization. Zambia’s 2025 Energy Transition Roadmap targets 20% value addition by 2030 speed it up with supplier task forces, regulatory fixes, and civil society input for bottom up political pressure and accountability for  results.

A Bold Future for Africa’s Green Economy

Africa’s green future depends on this kind of boldness. By taking Malaysia’s lessons to heart, Zambia and Africa can turn tariff threats into opportunities for sovereignty, leading the continent from mere extraction to real innovation.

References.

African Development Bank. (2025). Joint venture for regional battery production in Zambia and DRC. AfDB Publications. 

African Union. (2023). Africa Green Minerals Strategy (AGMS). AU Commission. African Union. (2025). Progress on intra-African trade in minerals under AGMS. AU Reports. 

Baffes, J., Kabundi, A., & Zhan, F. (2022). Commodity markets: Evolution, challenges, and policies. World Bank Publications. 

European Commission. (2025). EU-Zambia Strategic Raw Materials Partnership. EC Directorate-General for Trade. 

European Union. (2022). EU-Zambia Economic Forum outcomes. EU External Action Service. 

European Union. (2023). Critical Raw Materials Act. Official Journal of the European Union. European Union. (2025). Funding commitments under Critical Raw Materials Act for Zambia. EU Reports.

International Trade Centre. (2025). Zambia’s tariff concessions under AfCFTA. ITC Trade Map. 

Lobito Atlantic Railway. (2025). Lobito Corridor impact assessment. LAR Reports. 

Southern African Development Community. (2025). SADC industrial development protocols. SADC Secretariat. 

Stevenson, A., & Saieed, Z. (2025, August 4). What’s it like to deal with brutal U.S. tariffs? Ask Malaysia. The New York Times. 

United Countries Conference on Trade and Development. (2025). Tariff preparedness strategies for developing countries. UNCTAD Policy Briefs. 

United States Department of State. (2022). U.S.-DRC-Zambia MoU on EV battery value chains. State Department Archives.

United States Senate. (2025). Ethical sourcing advocacy for DRC-Zambia minerals. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 

World Bank. (2025a). Energy Transition Minerals Roadmap for Zambia. World Bank Group. 

World Bank. (2025b). Zambia’s critical minerals production and exports. World Bank Data. 

World Bank. (2025c). China’s investments in African minerals. World Bank Reports.

 World Bank. (2025d). Underreported mineral production in Africa. World Bank Studies. 

Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa. (2025). COMESA Medium-Term Strategic Plan 2025-2028. COMESA Secretariat.