Geopolitical Crossroads: Climate, Conflict, and Critical Minerals
Written By Ceaser Siwale
The RussiaUkraine War
The war between Russia and Ukraine is reshaping global energy and mineral markets. Ukraine, home to significant lithium reserves, has seen its mining sector stalled due to the conflict. This delays its potential as a key supplier of EV batteries and exacerbates Europe’s reliance on imports from geopolitically unstable regions.
Europe’s energy crisis, worsened by the war, has catalysed efforts to reduce dependency on Russian natural gas. Countries are expediting renewable energy projects, but the transition is costly and delayed. The war has also had ripple effects globally, inflating the cost of critical minerals and creating a scramble for alternative sources, intensifying competition and geopolitical tensions.
Syria’s Reconstruction
Syria’s postwar reconstruction is emblematic of the global struggle between short-term economic recovery and long-term sustainability. While rebuilding efforts could integrate renewable energy and modern infrastructure, cost and expediency often dictate reality. Rebuilding traditional, carbon-intensive models could lock Syria into decades of environmental inefficiency. The geopolitical tug-of-war over influence in Syria further complicates matters as global powers prioritise strategic gains over ecological considerations.
Africa: The Missing Link
Africa has vast reserves of critical minerals like cobalt, nickel, lithium, and copper, indispensable for EVs, renewable technologies, and global electrification. However, the continent’s mining sector is beset by systemic challenges. Poor infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and issues such as child labour and environmental degradation hinder the full exploitation of these resources.
Countries like the DRC dominate global cobalt production but lack the infrastructure to ensure consistent supply chains. Zambia, a significant copper producer, faces similar hurdles. These challenges have made Africa more vulnerable to exploitation and less capable of leveraging its mineral wealth for broader economic development.
This reality contrasts sharply with the misconceptions of Africa in the 1980s, often viewed as stagnant and disconnected. Today’s Africa is a dynamic, globally integrated region with young, well-travelled populations shaping global trends. The rise of startups, tech hubs, and innovative solutions from Nairobi to Lagos highlights Africa’s ability to contribute to global progress. The continent requires sustained investment in infrastructure, governance, and education to unlock its full potential. Doing so would elevate Africa’s role in global supply chains and position it as a leader in addressing global challenges such as climate change and technological innovation.
The Trump Administration: Disruptor or Catalyst?
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency is poised to disrupt the global trajectory toward clean energy and ESG adherence. Trump’s “America First” policies will likely deprioritise international climate cooperation, as seen during his previous term when the U.S. withdrew from the Paris Accord. His administration may revive coal mining, increase fossil fuel subsidies, and roll back environmental regulations, signalling a shift away from clean energy priorities.
For Africa, interactions with the Trump administration will likely be shaped by mutual trade, resources, and security interests. While Trump’s first term saw limited engagement with Africa beyond trade and counterterrorism, a second term could deepen these ties or widen the gap. Africa’s growing importance in supplying critical minerals such as cobalt and copper positions it as a valuable partner, which will require strategic negotiations to ensure mutual benefit. The next phase of U.S.Africa relations under Trump may hinge on whether the administration adopts a more unifying approach, recognises Africa as a key player in global economic and environmental strategies, or prioritises short-term U.S. interests over long-term collaboration.
However, market forces may act as a counterbalance. Major corporations remain committed to decarbonisation, driven by consumer demand, investor pressure, and international competition. Even without federal support, initiatives in states like California and the private sector may continue to lead in EV adoption and renewables. Global markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, may also sustain momentum for clean energy despite U.S. policy shifts.
