Copper Supply Shocks!

By Tshepo Magagane

It is so difficult to explain to people outside the industry what the challenges are with copper supply are.

Even if you assume just 35Mtpa by 2030 (see that I am not even talking about 50Mtpa) – give me a list of new projects out there that can produce just 200ktpa?

200ktpa is a Tier 1 project – to just fill a 1Mtpa supply gap – you need 5 of these projects (do you know how big those projects should be…where are they).

Then let us make is simple – see the production reviews by big mining companies as they start to exploit lower grade ore – lower grades but multiples head grades of new projects.

Then understanding that the lower you go down the grades, the Capex intensity increases and the opex increases (SAmerican low grades are going to be 8-10x current prices – nothing you can do about it).

Copper is not a Critical Mineral – it is National Security and it is Strategic / and for Capital it is a must have allocation.