By Tshepo Magagane My read – yes, balance sheet is stronger BUT I dont think you can price a Tier 1 asset right now. Will be like trying to sell a stake in an Iron Ore asset in 2003. Price was 30/t – in 05 went up to 65/t – think about that – it […]
Arsenal – Can They Ever Win The League?
By Tshepo Magagane Investing / Commodities lesson! Was having this conversation with a distressed debt investor I worked with around 09 about this. He was linking it to investing – especially a question that he liked in interviews “X is trading at 2 but you analysis says 5” …you buy in and sell at 4 […]
Pre-MRE Projects
By Tshepo Magagane At this early stage is where the greatest value creation lies! You will hear all this, “we only do feasibility stage projects” – know that the capital does not understand the sector. No one ever made real money in mining by coming in at BFS! You need to do the risk unlock […]
Copper – Valuation Pulse Check!
Tshepo Magagane Hudbay sells 30% of the project for an implied valuation of USD2bn – Tier 2 project and focuses on the Cu grades in the attached. Why whoever solves this conundrum of these 0.6-1% projects in Zambia will unlock generational wealth creation multiples of what we saw with Iron Ore in Australia. This is […]
Commodities and Industrialisation
I will give you this eg of Kumba Iron ore and ArcelorMittal South Africa (Arcelor has these agreements globally). With the Kumba one, the iron ore assets were effectively written-off to zero and spun out… …what the steel operations held on to was the supply of this production to support steel (& expansion) at a […]
The African Copperbelts
By Tshepo Magagane Sometimes it is so difficult to really convey the opportunity at hand! The average project can generate an EBITDA margin of cUSD5,000/t (DRC will be higher given the higher grades). Now this about when Copper prices start to move – it is just dropping to the bottom line! I have the attached […]
Bottom Line Up Front
By Ceaser Siwale The recent U.S. military action against Iran marks a severe geopolitical escalation with immediate, far-reaching consequences for global markets and business operations. The primary threat is a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. This is not a moderate risk; it is a […]
Copper Is Not Critical – It Is Strategic
By Tshepo Magagane Copper ore shortage – the market does not understand or even begin to appreciate how much lack of ore is already there before we even talk about the Transition. 2 yrs back sitting with a smelter operator (who has now actually put it on C&M), he went “I am getting investor offers […]
Copper Needs a Minimum of USD250bn Over The Next 10yrs To Meet The Transition Demand.
By Tshepo Mangagane Zambia alone needs USD12-15bn to unlock the independent projects that will contribute to the 3Mtpa Current AuM in Specialist Funds sits at USD17bn – less than 3% of that focuses on Africa. ZERO percent of Specialist Funds does pre-PFS projects across all commodities. There are not new pre-MRE projects defined globally. How […]
Why Listed Equity Is Not Suitable For Developing Mining Projects!
By Tshepo Magagane Ivanhoe share price – why listed equity is not suitable for developing mining projects! If Ivanhoe was another company without such a strong shareholder base; it would be in serious trouble. Now given that you have long-term holders who understand mining, they are able to step back, understand the issue and then […]