Written By: Mutisunge Zulu Chief Risk Officer | Global Executive PhD Cand. Business Mgt, AI & Strategy at ESCP Business School | Global Executive MBA (Manchester) Copper’s breach above $11,000/MT didn’t just surprise markets, it invalidated the analytical architecture many of us have used for decades. What the industry long regarded as a cyclical industrial […]
MAC Clause
You just cant pull out of deals because you have 2nd thoughts! Same thing is going to happen with the Anglo coal assets. Anglo will also get another boost as they are going to plug higher LT coal prices in models now (and the stars aligning with the IEA coming back with scenarios of longer coal […]
Copper Supply Shocks!
By Tshepo Magagane It is so difficult to explain to people outside the industry what the challenges are with copper supply are. Even if you assume just 35Mtpa by 2030 (see that I am not even talking about 50Mtpa) – give me a list of new projects out there that can produce just 200ktpa? 200ktpa […]
As People Pile In
By Tshepo Magagane As people pile into mining without any knowledge or experience – understand these simple things – this should simply have never been issued. I want to see the NPV at 1.3k downside. I want to see base case at 1.8k. Spot is upside. Think about it simplistically: * Debt provider – for […]
Africa – transition – the continent is alone in this!
Written By Tshepo Magagane If we are waiting for any Western entity to come and unlock this for us…..we are still hallucinating! We need to be truly smart about unlocking this FOR OUR OWN BENEFIT! We are currently observes in this whole thing and it is getting worse. Let us use whatever capital is available […]
Buying Gold Assets – what do you pay at this stage?
By Tshepo Magagane I mean, the likes of Thor, I would happily pay a premium and buy it at 2-3x PER! But others, what do you input as LT gold price? It has value destruction written all over it there! In a gold story, you are coming in at 1. NAV 2. Prices have moved […]
Copper challenges – They Are Vast!
By Tshepo Magagane I have been following Chemaf for the past 15yrs! Close to USD700m has been sunk into this! It is at best a Tier 4 project. BUT see the fight the Chinese are putting to get hold of it, you have seen Special Forces from the US also entering this fight. Or the […]
Zambia’s Agriculture Sector From Recovery to Resilience
Chabala Sunkutu 2025 has been a remarkable year for Zambia’s economy. After the challenges of recent years, we’ve seen a strong rebound that is restoring confidence across industries. Real GDP grew by 4.5% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, and both the IMF and the government project full-year growth between 5.8% and 6.0%, which, if […]
FQM Abandoning Sale Process Of Zambia Assets!
By Tshepo Magagane My read – yes, balance sheet is stronger BUT I dont think you can price a Tier 1 asset right now. Will be like trying to sell a stake in an Iron Ore asset in 2003. Price was 30/t – in 05 went up to 65/t – think about that – it […]
Arsenal – Can They Ever Win The League?
By Tshepo Magagane Investing / Commodities lesson! Was having this conversation with a distressed debt investor I worked with around 09 about this. He was linking it to investing – especially a question that he liked in interviews “X is trading at 2 but you analysis says 5” …you buy in and sell at 4 […]