2025 Predictions and Realities II

Thoughts from Ceaser Siwale

Electric Vehicles (EVs): A Tipping Point

Prediction: By 2025, governments and automakers worldwide are expected to push aggressively toward EV adoption, spurred by the convergence of stricter environmental regulations, consumer demand, and economic incentives. Countries like China and members of the European Union are ramping up EV manufacturing and infrastructure, while automakers are committing billions to electrify their fleets.

Reality: The picture is more fragmented. The incoming Trump administration may weaken federal support for EVs, such as rolling back subsidies and undermining emissions regulations, dampening adoption in the U.S. Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic hurdles constrain global EV expansion. The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted key supply chains for nickel and lithium, essential components of EV batteries. Rising costs of these minerals, coupled with infrastructure deficits in mineral-rich regions like Africa, could further slow EV production and adoption. In developing countries, limited charging infrastructure and high vehicle costs still make EVs a distant dream for most consumers.

Renewables and ESG: Moving Beyond Buzzwords

Prediction: The global energy mix is forecast to undergo a dramatic transformation by 2025. Advances in wind, solar, and energy storage technologies are predicted to lower costs and make renewables increasingly competitive. ESG principles are expected to drive corporate investments in sustainable projects, fostering greater alignment with global climate goals.

Reality: Despite these aspirations, barriers remain. In the U.S., the Trump administration could reintroduce fossil fuel subsidies, slowing renewables adoption domestically and undermining global climate leadership. The ESG movement is also facing growing scrutiny. Critics argue that many companies engage in “greenwashing” rather than meaningful action, undermining public trust and creating a gap between rhetoric and reality.

In regions like Africa, renewables have immense potential to leapfrog traditional energy systems. Solar microgrids and small-scale wind farms are providing millions with off-grid solutions. However, political instability, weak financial systems, and the absence of large-scale funding impede widespread deployment. Africa’s renewable sector remains undercapitalised despite its capacity to meet local energy needs and export clean energy solutions globally.